- Boris Johnson suffered a painful by-election loss on Thursday after weeks of bad news.
- The Liberal Democrats took the safe Tory seat of North Shropshire with a huge swing of 34.2%
- Tory MPs told Insider of growing discontent in their ranks that could threaten Johnson's future.
A shock defeat for Boris Johnson's Conservative Party in a by-election has furthered the discontent of his MPs, prompting dark warnings about his political future.
The Liberal Democrats, traditionally a distant third party in UK politics, took the rural seat of North Shropshire in a Parliamentary by-election on Thursday.
It prompted an angry response from Conservatives MPs bruised from a defeat in their heartlands.
Four MPs who spoke to Insider pointed the blame at Johnson and the Tory party machinery, complaining of "self-inflicted" political missteps, and a complacency that took a seat like North Shropshire for granted.
Even one optimistic about Johnson's future said that he faced a huge challenge to reassert himself.
One noted that party whips had tried to stop MPs making mutinous comments to the media, an operation that transparently failed.
The Lib Dems roared from a third-place finish in 2019's general election to beat the Conservatives on Thursday by 15.6 percentage points, a stunningly large change in their fortunes.
The seat in various forms has been Conservative since 1832, aside from two years held by a Liberal MP after a by-election in 1904.
Chris Curtis, a senior researcher at the polling firm Opinium, told Insider the scale of the Tory defeat was "absolutely massive," noting that it was "the seventh-largest swing we've ever seen in a by-election."
The result follows weeks of bad news for Johnson, which included:
- Damaging reports of parties and gatherings held in Downing Street and across government in the winter of 2020, when the country was in lockdown.
- Video emerging of the Prime Minister's staff joking about their Christmas party days later, and a photograph of Johnson asking questions in a Christmas quiz.
- Reports that Johnson's independent advisor on ministers' interests might resign over allegations he was misled in an investigation into who paid for the Downing Street flat to be refurbished.
- 100 of the 361 Tory MPs rebelling in a vote to tighten COVID-19 restrictions.
- The Conservatives falling to second place across the polls behind the opposition Labour Party.
- A "tidal wave" of the Omicron coronavirus variant sweeping across the UK.
Insider spoke to four Conservative MPs on Friday to assess the mood in the party.
Roger Gale, a Conservative MP since 1983, told Insider the result was a "referendum on Downing Street."
"The problem is there is a feeling of lack of control and chaos coming out of Downing Street. Nobody is really in command. And the prime minister is supposed to be running the ship.
"People will be talking" about replacing him as the Conservative leader, he said.
"Whether people decide they want to send letters to Graham Brady now or not, I don't know. I genuinely don't know," Gale said, referring to the process by which MPs can trigger a leadership contest.
Another Tory MP, however, suggested a leadership challenge would be "madness", and suggested the by-election loss was less significant. The MP was granted anonymity to speak frankly.
"The whole issue is we've been in this terrible situation for 20 months," they said.
"People's patience is strained, people are cross and angry, so mistakes are magnified. There is no quick solution to this. There is no quick fix.
"We have defied political gravity for 11 years. We should have been losing by-elections in year 2 or 3. It's taken us 11 years to get to this point. We haven't had a bad set of local election results since 1997. This is just political gravity reasserting itself."
They argued that Johnson "has to reassert himself, he's got to get back on the front foot. That will be very difficult as we are about to have another challenging three months, that is clear. But he knows what he's got to do."
A third Conservative MP, also granted anonymity, told Insider of the "dissatisfaction in the party" at the "self-inflicted own goals" of recent weeks.
The Downing Street parties "needed a proper investigation very quickly — this is what went on, those who were involved. It shouldn't have rumbled on in the way it has," they said.
The MP was among the 100 or so to rebel in the vote on COVID-19 restrictions, and said that Johnson needs to pay more mind to his base in order to survive.
"You've got to consult us. You've got to do better and then we will follow you. But at the moment we're not very happy," they said.
A fourth Conservative MP, again granted anonymity, said that party whips — in charged of discipline — were trying to stop MPs speaking out on Friday morning.
"The whips were out of their blocks very early this morning, trying to encourage us not to go on the airwaves. You don't normally see an operation like that happen after a by-election."
This was indicative of "angst in the higher echelons of the party", they suggested.
The MP was most critical of Conservative Campaign Headquarters, suggesting staff there had been complacent.
"North Shropshire had been taken for granted for years. So they had no data when they started. If there was a by-election in [the MP's constituency], we have shitloads of data. That's because we're a marginal seat and are battling Labour left right and center.
"Personally I think CCHQ is a bit dysfunctional right now."
They pointed to forthcoming local elections in May as Johnson's make-or-break moment.
"At this moment in time, I do not think there is a groundswell of letters pouring in and getting to that critical number. I think there's a genuine 'I will be reviewing it over the next few months' type mentality."
As for Helen Morgan, the Liberal Democrat who won North Shropshire, the Tory MP suggested she would only hold the seat until the next general election.
The by-election was held after Owen Paterson resigned his seat in the House of Commons following a botched government attempt to spare him from disciplinary proceedings for breaking lobby rules.
Had the government not intervened, Paterson would likely still be North Shropshire's MP, and close to serving out his 30-day suspension, which had an end-date of January 11.